California almond growers are used to dealing with swings in the weather and water supply. Now they must also grapple with the uncertainty of trade battles as the Trump administration levies tariffs on goods from several countries and weighs adding more to the list.
The Golden State is the largest producer of the world’s almonds, accounting for roughly 80 percent of the global supply.
With more than three-quarters of California’s almond crop headed for export, tariffs could impact where the nut is headed and send ripple effects throughout the state’s economy, experts said.
Turlock’s Dexter Long is vice president of Hilltop Ranch in Ballico. Hilltop and its partners farm 5,000 acres of almonds and purchase from other growers that represent some 20,000 acres, and ship product to 70 different countries around the world.
“From planting the tree to cashing the check, we do it all,” said Long. “We take the almonds from the farm to the container.”
Long voted for President Donald Trump in the previous election, and said it “wasn’t because of profitability.”
“He did (tariffs) in his first administration and he talked about doing it this time, so we knew it was coming,” said Long. “But do I worry about price and a reduction in consumption because of higher prices? Of course. We definitely felt the impacts last time, so it’s something that I’ll be keeping a close watch on.”
Already, China has responded to the administration’s move by raising tariffs on U.S. almonds — and that’s on top of tariffs levied on the crop during the last Trump administration.
“If we start a trade war with India, the European Union, parts of the Middle East, then the almond industry in California is going to suffer dramatically,” said Colin Carter, agricultural economist and professor emeritus at University of California, Davis. “The price will fall even further and you’ll see orchards being ripped out; farms being lost. There’d be farms for sale up and down the Valley.”
Less than two months into his second term, Trump has slapped 10 percent tariffs on China and threatened (then delayed for 30 days) 25% taxes on goods from Canada and Mexico. He has also threatened to expand the trade war by levying reciprocal tariffs on a number of products to match what other countries charge on U.S. goods.
Experts say it is creating a tough environment for farmers trying to plan ahead.
“California almond growers depend on exports to support their families, our communities, and the economy,” said Rep. Adam Gray (D-Merced), who represents a portion of Turlock in the 13th Congressional District. “Almonds are our state’s top agricultural export, contributing over $9 billion to California’s economy and creating 110,000 jobs statewide. New tariffs could severely harm Valley farmers, who’ve already lost millions due to past trade disputes.”
Rep. Tom McClintock (R-Elk Grove), who represents the other half of Turlock in the 5th Congressional District, is even more skeptical of tariffs than his Democratic counterpart, but he’s willing to reserve judgment.
“I hate tariffs,” said McClintock. “They hurt consumers and damage every economy that imposes them. But I'm not going to set my hair on fire over this yet. Tariffs cause even more pain to our trading partners, which gives us enormous leverage that President Trump has already used quite effectively to secure our borders. Now, he is turning them against countries that impose tariffs on our producers. Argentina is already proposing a 100% free trade agreement with the United States. If that's where these tariffs are leading, it could produce a golden age of global free trade and the peace and prosperity that accompanies it. So, I'm willing to back this play for now.”
However, Trump’s moves have drawn retaliation from U.S. trading partners. China has said U.S.-grown chicken, wheat, corn and cotton will face an extra 15% tariff while sorghum, soybeans, pork, beef, seafood, fruit, vegetables and dairy products will face an additional 10% — and so will almonds, California’s biggest agricultural export. The state reeled in $4.7 billion from almond exports in 2022 with about half going to the European Union and India, farm data shows.
“Almond exports are incredibly important to our county,” said Stanislaus County Ag Commissioner Linda Pinfold. “Typically, almonds are our No. 1 commodity, save for 2022 when milk prices were incredible and the bottom fell out of the almond market.”
According to the county’s most recent crop report (2023), almond output was valued at more than $813 million, and India was the top destination for the nuts, followed by Spain, Germany and Italy — the latter three nations are members of the European Union.
Almond experts say the key for California will be continuing to pursue a range of export markets.
“The California almond industry has been closely monitoring the earlier announcements of tariffs and responses from Canada, Mexico and China, as well as the EU’s response to the U.S.’ most recent March 12 announcement,” said Rick Kushman, spokesperson for the Almond Board of California. “Canada, China, Mexico and the EU continue to be important markets for our industry. California almonds are shipped to more than 100 destinations and maintaining a diverse export program is essential. We continue to support reducing barriers to trade, and smooth market access for California almonds.”
Many California farmers in the crop-rich Central Valley have welcomed some of Trump’s other policies, specifically aimed at getting more water to their fields. The region, which grows much of the country’s fresh produce, including citrus fruit and almonds, is largely Republican in a widely Democratic state.
But California’s almonds will now face a total tariff of 35% in China. That’s because Beijing placed tariffs on almonds during Trump’s first administration in response to tariffs that he levied on Chinese products. The move made California’s almonds relatively more expensive to nuts from Australia, which gained market share in China, as a result while California’s almond exports to China declined. However, Long said what growers lost in China was nearly offset in India.
Since then, many California almond exporters have shifted their focus to other markets, said Zachary Williams, sales director for Stewart & Jasper Orchards in Newman. He said Canadian buyers currently are scooping up California almonds ahead of tariffs potentially taking effect since the state grows so much of the world’s supply. He said any attempt by India to raise tariffs could spark concern the nut might grow too pricey for consumers there.
The tariffs are a challenge, he said, but an even bigger one is the lack of certainty for almond growers who don’t expect to harvest a new orchard for at least three years and then plan to grow it for two decades.
Long agreed that markets abhor uncertainty, but said one silver lining has been a weakening dollar, which increases the buying power for those purchasing U.S. goods.
“Over the past week and a half, almonds have seen a 10-cent increase in price per pound,” said Long. “A weak dollar is better across the board.”
Stanislaus County Supervisor Vito Chiesa, whose District 2 includes Turlock, grows almonds and walnuts, and said the overall uncertainty concerns him as a politician, but there’s not much he can do about it as a farmer.
“Farmers live with uncertainty,” said Chiesa. “The uncertainty is a lot worse on the county side of things. But until such time as they apply the tariffs, it’s just in the ether for me. It may happen or it may not happen. There’s really no telling at this point.”
The Associated Press contributed to this article.
