While results of the year’s first Sierra snowpack survey are just below average, experts say anything could happen in the coming months and don’t count out another dry spring and summer.

The Department of Water Resources (DWR) conducted the first snow survey of the season on Thursday at Phillips Station. The manual survey recorded 24 inches of snow depth and a snow water equivalent of 9 inches, which is 91 percent of average for this location. The snow water equivalent measures the amount of water contained in the snowpack and is a key component of DWR’s water supply forecast. Statewide, the snowpack is 108 percent of average for this date.

Recent years in California have been marked by extremely hot and dry conditions broken up by periods of intense rain and snow. So far, this water year has been no different. A record-breaking hot and dry summer continued well into the fall, but a powerful atmospheric river in November broke several rainfall records in Northern California. A series of storms in late December provided another boost.

“While our snowpack looks good now, we have a long way until April when our water supply picture will be more complete,” said DWR Director Karla Nemeth. “Extreme shifts between dry and wet conditions are continuing this winter and if the past several years are any indication, anything could happen between now and April and we need to be prepared.”

TID hydrologist Matt Siemens gave the irrigation district’s board of trustees the same message at their Dec. 17 meeting. He reported that as of Dec. 16, the TID service area was at 5.7 inches of precipitation for the month, slightly below average, but it was still too early to tell if it would be a dry year, average year or wet year for the district’s irrigation customers come spring.

This past week was a microcosm of previous weather conditions, with widespread precipitation and moderate to heavy mountain snow seen Thursday and Friday, which will be followed with dry and warming weather over the weekend and into next week, according to the National Weather Service.

DWR’s electronic readings from 130 stations placed throughout the Sierra Nevada indicate that the statewide snowpack’s snow water equivalent is 10.7 inches, or 108 percent of average for this date, compared to 28 percent on this date last year.

California has seen this pattern before. In both 2013 and 2022, the January snowpack was well above average thanks to December storm activity, only for dry conditions to take over the rest of the winter, quickly erasing early season snow totals and continuing existing drought conditions across the state.

“We are fortunate to have had several solid snow-producing atmospheric river systems so far this season,” said DWR’s Snow Surveys and Water Supply Forecasting Unit Manager Andy Reising. “The fall was extremely dry, so our healthy snow totals are thanks to a handful of big storm systems in November and late December. But to finish the year where we need to be, we will still need additional snow building at a regular pace throughout the winter.”

Major reservoirs statewide are currently 121 percent of average thanks to two consecutive years of above average snowpack conditions, which occurred after the driest three-year period on record in California. DWR is preparing for these swings between extreme conditions by investing in climate resilience, including the use of Forecast Informed Reservoir Operations, floodplain and flood infrastructure improvements and groundwater recharge efforts that will ensure California is able to capture and use as much water during flood conditions as possible.

On average, the Sierra snowpack supplies about 30 percent of California’s water needs. Its natural ability to store water is why the Sierra snowpack is often referred to as California's “frozen reservoir.” Data from these snow surveys and forecasts produced by DWR’s Snow Surveys and Water Supply Forecasting Unit are important factors in determining how DWR manages the state’s water resources.

DWR conducts four media-oriented snow surveys at Phillips Station each winter near the first of each month, January through April and, if necessary, May. The next survey is tentatively scheduled for Feb. 3.

For California’s current hydrological conditions, visit https://cww.water.ca.gov