The race between incumbent Rep. John Duarte (R-Modesto) and Democratic challenger Adam Gray for the 13th District congressional seat is once again going down to the wire.
As of late Tuesday night, Duarte led the former five-term Assemblymember by a mere 227 votes — 100,885 to 100,658. Two years ago, when Duarte won the seat by just 564 votes, the race for the 13th was the second-closest House race in the nation.
“We’ll keep curing ballots on both sides,” said Duarte from his residence in the nation’s capital. “This race is so close that it may end up going to a recount. We just have to stay patient until every vote is counted.”
For months, this race was labeled a toss-up by reputable polling outlets, with a few giving Gray a slight edge in the final weeks of the campaign. For a time, that appeared to be a major miscalculation with Duarte leading by more than 3,000 votes at times. But the lead has continued to dwindle and now Gray is closer than he was two years ago.
The only problem for Gray is he’s running out of daylight.
The 13th district includes all of Merced County and pieces of Stanislaus, San Joaquin, Madera and Fresno counties. While there are still ballots left to process, it’s not clear how many of those ballots are from residents of the 13th district.
Two years ago, in an off-year election, about 135,000 ballots were cast in the district. This year, more than 200,000 ballots have been accounted for.
In Stanislaus County, which is Duarte’s home turf, Gray has nearly a 3,800-vote lead — 53.3% to 46.7%. In Merced County, which is Gray’s home county, the race is a little closer — 51.3% to 48.7% — with Gray ahead by 2,000 votes. In San Joaquin County, though Gray leads by just 1,000 votes, it represents his largest percentage — 53.6 to 46.4.
Conversely, Duarte is dominating Madera County by 4,700 votes — 57% to 43% — and Fresno County by nearly 2,400 votes, with 56.2% of the vote to Gray’s 43.8.
Ever since 2022, when Duarte’s victory contributed to the Republicans’ slim House majority, the 13th has been a target by both parties, which contributed millions to bolster their candidate.
As it stands, the GOP controls 218 House seats, while the Democrats have secured 212. Five seats, including the 13th, remain undecided.
“We’ve got the lead at this point,” said Duarte. “We just have to wait until we’re sure.”
A message to Adam Gray seeking comment was not returned.
In other local elections:
• Incumbent District 2 Turlock City Council member Rebecka Monez has widen her lead over retired businessman Milt Trieweiler. Monez is now ahead by 57 votes since last the last update on Nov. 12, with an unknown number of ballots yet to be counted.
• Local businesswoman Erika Phillips is still comfortably ahead of county public health worker Kamlesh Kaur for the Turlock City Council District 4 seat by about 1,762 votes as of Tuesday.
• In the race for city treasurer, Michael Abram, husband of District 3 councilmember Cassandra Abram, also had a sizable cushion against his opponent — outgoing District 4 councilmember Pam Franco. Abram has amassed 11,888 votes (57.8%), while Franco has 8,648votes (42.1), as of Tuesday.
• In Turlock Irrigation District’s Division 1 race, incumbent Michael Frantz is winning in a landslide over TUSD board member Mary Jackson, with 77.3% of the vote.
• In the Area 3 Turlock Unified School Board race, challenger Anna Ramirez has a 271-vote lead over incumbent Paola Maldonado-Padilla.
• In TUSD Area 5, Debbie Martinez has a lead of 1,557 to 1,131 over incumbent Daniel Benedict.
• And in TUSD Area 6, challenger Patrick Shields, a member of the Community Development Block Grant selection committee, as well as the Measure A citizen’s oversight committee, is in the lead over incumbent Joe A. Souza. Shields has 1,917 votes (53.5%), while Souza has 1,662 votes (46.4).
• Denair Unified School District Board (top three) — Andrea Bennet remains the top vote recipient, with nearly 30% of the vote, while Jason Christopher De Muro is now in second place with 20.2% percent of the vote. Ray Prock, Jr. is in third place with 20.1% of the vote, followed by Kathi Dunham-Filson (17.2%) and Carmen Wilson (12.5%).
• Hughson City Council (top two) — Alan McFadon remains in the lead with 1,242 votes (28.2%), while Susana Vasquez and Sam T. Rush are battling for the second seat. Vasquez has 1,010 votes, just eight more than Rush.
