BY VICTOR A. PATTON

CV Journalism Collaborative

A key race that will play a crucial role in determining who wields power in the halls of Congress is playing out here in the heart of the San Joaquin Valley.

In a few weeks, residents will get to have a front row seat to see both sides address key issues ahead of the Nov. 5 General Election.

Rep. John Duarte, who represents the Valley’s 13th Congressional District, will soon face off against his Democratic challenger Adam Gray at the “Debate At The State.”

The event is scheduled to take place Oct. 25 at the State Theatre, 1307 J St. in Modesto. Admission is free; register at the State Theatre website. Doors open at 7 p.m., and the debate starts at 7:30 p.m.  

The debate is being sponsored by the Central Valley Journalism Collaborative, The Maddy Institute and UC Merced Cape Center. The debate will be broadcast live on CapRadio (91.3 FM in Modesto/Stanislaus County) and KVPR (89.3 FM Merced and Fresno). 

Issues and makeup of the 13th District

Because the 13th Congressional District is neither solidly Democrat or Republican, winning it will be key for whichever party gets control of the House of Representatives.

Republicans hold 220 of House seats to the Democrat’s 212, with three vacancies. 

The race between Duarte and Gray is a rematch – and as such, it’s one of the most hotly-contested congressional seats in California, if not the nation.

Democrats are more numerous in the 13th District, making up roughly 40% of the electorate, while Republicans make up about 29%, according to the Secretary of State’s latest data. 

But having more Democrats in the district didn’t translate into victory for Gray last time around. In 2022, Duarte beat Gray by a mere 564 votes, or less than half a percentage point, out of over 133,000 ballots cast. 

There’s another group that Duarte and Gray have to convince if they want to win – no party preference voters, who make up a whopping 21.7% of registered 13th District voters. A much smaller percentage of voters belong to third parties. 

The 13th Congressional District stretches across five counties, including San Joaquin, Stanislaus, Merced, Madera and Fresno.

Merced County is the only county fully in the district and makes up more than one-third of the registered voters within the district boundaries.

Situated in the San Joaquin Valley, the 13th Congressional District remains heavily agricultural. Thus, water rights remain a prime issue that the winner of the seat will have to address.

Housing affordability is another undoubtedly hot button issue on13th District voters’ minds in 2024, in addition to a lack of high-paying jobs. A USA Today report recently ranked the Merced area among the least affordable small metro areas in the nation.

Meanwhile, the median household income in Merced hovers around $66,000, compared to California’s average of $91,000.