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Gray unseats incumbent Duarte in CA-13 race
Adam Gray campaign
Adam Gray, seen here with his supporters earlier this year, expected another ultra-competitive contest at the get-go (Photo contributed).

Democrat Adam Gray, a former five-term Assemblymember who lost a bid for Congress in 2022, has unseated incumbent Rep. John Duarte (R-Modesto) in the closest House race — and the last to be called — in the nation this election cycle.

Duarte, a farmer turned politician, phoned his challenger just after 5 p.m. to concede the race.

“That’s how it goes,” said Duarte, who fell 187 votes short of retaining his seat in the 13th Congressional District. “I’m a citizen legislator, and I didn’t plan on being in Congress forever. But whenever I think I can make a difference, I’ll consider public service in different forms, including running for Congress again.”

Duarte defeated Gray by 564 votes two years ago in what was then the second-closest race in the nation.

“The Congressman was very gracious and I appreciated the call,” said Gray. “We had a quick chat. He wanted to make sure that we don’t drop any of the work already done here in the Valley.”

Both candidates had said they expected another ultra-competitive contest in 2024, and they got exactly that. Gray won the rematch— 105,554 votes to 105,367 — in the closest House race since 2006, when Democrat Joe Courtney defeated Republican incumbent Rob Simmons by less than 100 votes for the 2nd district seat in Connecticut.

California’s 13th district includes parts or all of five counties — Stanislaus, Merced (all), San Joaquin, Madera, and Fresno.

Turlock sits in two congressional districts, the 13th and the 5th, which is represented by Rep. Tom McClintock (R-El Dorado Hills), who routed Democrat challenger, Mike Barkley, with 61.8 % of the vote in a solidly red district.

The 13th, conversely, is decidedly purple.

“As divided as people suggest the country is, I think we all have a lot more in common than we’re given credit for,” said Gray, a native of Merced. “People do want change, but the change they want is for Congress to get back to solving problems. … They don’t want people yelling and screaming at each other. That’s not the kind of leadership people want. They want a government that works for them.”

Gray dominated in Merced, Stanislaus, and San Joaquin counties, while Madera and Fresno counties were Duarte strongholds. However, two-thirds of the total vote came from Stanislaus and Merced counties, helping to put Gray over the top.

In all, 210,921 votes were cast, more than 77,000 votes above the 133,556 cast in the 2022 midterm election (voter turnout tends to be lower during midterms).

County by county, the race broke down like this:

Stanislaus — Gray 31,424 … Duarte 27,492 (53.3 to 46.7%)

Merced — Gray 42,652 … Duarte 40,253 (51.4 to 48.6)

San Joaquin — Gray 8,064 … Duarte 6,996 (53.5 to 46.5)

Madera — Duarte 19,187 … Gray 14,410 (57.1 to 42.9)

Fresno — Duarte 11,440 … Gray 9,004 (56.0 to 44.0)

Not surprisingly, Gray carried his home county by nearly 2,500 votes. It was a bit of a surprise, however, that he also dominated Duarte’s home county — Stanislaus — by nearly 4,000 votes.

“We knew it was going to be close,” said Duarte. “Once you fall behind, though, it’s tough to climb out when there’s only a few thousand votes outstanding.”

For all of 2024, polling services categorized the Gray-Duarte rematch as a toss-up. Only in the final two weeks of the campaign did two of the services give a slight edge to Gray. Even when he fell behind by more than 3,000 votes in early counts, Gray never lost confidence.

“I didn’t because, at end of the day, I felt good about the campaign we ran,” said Gray. “We had hundreds of volunteers helping our campaign in so many ways. We knew it was going to be a close race, and it was a close race. I’m just thrilled that the voters put their trust in me to send me to Washington.”

Gray’s victory gives the Democrats 215 House seats, five seats less than the GOP.