Challenger Adam Gray (D-Merced) held an early lead late Tuesday night over Rep. John Duarte (R-Modesto) in the hotly contested race for the 13th Congressional District seat.

Duarte defeated the five-term Assemblymember by a mere 564 votes two years ago to win the seat. It was the second closest race in the nation in 2022.

Pundits anticipated another close matchup this year, with several reputable polling organizations classifying the race as a toss-up nearly every week this calendar year. However, in the last few weeks and days, two organizations — Inside Elections with Nathan L. Gonzales, and Larry J. Sabato’s Crystal Ball — moved the bar slightly by labeling the race “tilts Democratic” and “leans Democratic," an ever-so-slight distinction.

That seemed to be the case Tuesday, as Gray led by more than 1,100 votes out of almost 85,000 tabulated. Two years ago, more than 133,000 votes were cast.

The early voting broke down like this: Gray held a 2,300-vote margin in Stanislaus County — Duarte’s home turf — with 54.7 percent of the early vote to Duarte’s 45.3. In Merced County, Gray’s base of operations, the challenger led by 1,000 votes, or 51.9 percent to 48.1 percent. In San Joaquin County, Gray led by about 700 votes with nearly 7,500 votes cast — 54.9 percent to 45.1 percent. In Madera County, Duarte was ahead by more than 1,800 votes. Duarte also led in Fresno County, by about 1,100 votes.

The Gray-Duarte race is being followed closely around the nation as it’s expected to play a key role in determining which party controls the House of Representatives — an important distinction given the fact it appeared late Tuesday night that the Republicans would control the Senate and the White House in 2025. 

Gray has highlighted the fact that Duarte is a member of the least productive Congress in recent memory, while Duarte has played up his moderate bona fides, citing his rating by the conservative watchdog group Heritage Action.