With less than a week until the 13th Congressional District’s Friday-night debate at Modesto’s State Theatre, and a little more than two weeks until the Nov. 5 general election, Democrat Adam Gray now seems poised to make a strong run to the finish line after a massive fundraising haul in the third quarter.
Gray, a former five-term Assemblymember from Merced, added nearly $2.3 million to his coffers over the months of July, August and September, while Rep. John Duarte (R-Modesto) raised about $830,000 — roughly a third of what his rival collected.
“Big-money donors are trying to take me out so the Democratic Party can drive their agenda,” said Duarte. “If you dissect the numbers, you’ll see very little support is coming from the Central Valley.”
According to ProPublica.org, both candidates now have about $2 million cash on hand — Duarte with $2 million and Gray with $1.8 million — as their camps dash toward the conclusion of one of the most competitive races in the nation.
“I just think it demonstrates that this election is about change vs. more of the same,” said Gray. “I think voters are ready for change. And with that kind of money flowing in, it supports the fact that voters want change; they want a Congress that’s serious about doing work.”
Gray is hitting Duarte hard for being a member of the 118th Congress, a divisive assembly that has struggled to pass meaningful legislation, such as a farm bill, a border-security bill, and aid to Ukraine.
Ten years ago, a political scientist at Southern Illinois University — J. Tobin Grant — found that the 112th Congress (2011-2013) was the least productive since the Civil War. The 113th Congress was even less productive, and now the 118th is on pace to top both for overall futility.
“First of all, we’ve stopped the inflationary hemorrhaging of money from when the government was under total Democrat control,” said Duarte. “Divided government runs slower, but we’ve passed bills to make it easier for veterans to get services, we passed the Supply Chain Improvement Act, which helps get groceries to grocers more economically, and we’ve delivered tens of millions of dollars to the smallest communities in the Valley, providing resources that these communities haven’t seen in decades.”
A political neophyte in 2022, Duarte the seat by just 564 votes, the second-closest margin of any House race that year. Dating back to January, reputable pollsters have categorized their 2024 rematch as a “toss-up.” However, one polling service — Inside Elections with Nathan L. Gonzales — just this week shifted the race’s status from “toss-up” to “leans Democratic.” Additionally, according to a collection of polls compiled by three Southern California universities — USC, Long Beach State, and Cal-Poly Pomona — Gray leads Duarte by two percentage points overall, 44.4 percent to 42.4 percent, within the margin of error. That poll was conducted between Sept. 14 and Sept. 21.
One subject that has resonated across the country the past year has been the issue of reproductive rights. Gray suggests Duarte has waffled on the issue.
“As you know, I voted to amend the state constitution to solidify a woman’s right to make her own healthcare decisions,” said Gray. “It’s an incredibly important issue, and John Duarte is running a dishonest campaign. He’s saying he’s pro-choice, but he’s endorsed by Californians for Life, a pro-life group. He talks out of both sides of his mouth.”
Naturally, the incumbent sees it differently.
“I am pro-choice; everyone knows that,” said Duarte. “I ran last time as a pro-choice candidate. I am the lowest-ranked Republican in the caucus by (conservative advocacy organization) Heritage Action. I was one of two Republicans to vote to protect reproductive rights. I’ve got a voting record on this and it’s very clear.”
With such razor-thin margins, Friday’s debate in Modesto could be make-or-break for both candidates.
“I think debates are important because it’s an opportunity for voters to hear directly from John and me,” said Gray. “I’m looking forward to litigating the case here, and the case is pretty simple: John Duarte is part of most unproductive Congress in history. He hasn’t been able to deliver any bipartisan work, and I have 10 years in the state legislature of doing just that. I helped pass 10 on-time, balanced budgets. Voters will have an opportunity to look at those records.”
Duarte sees the debate as important, especially since it’s being held so close to Election Day, but not as the be-all, end-all of the campaign.
“What’s important is that I have a strong track record delivering for the Valley on real issues, such as the price of gas and groceries,” said Duarte. “Sound bites won’t carry this election. I’ve developed relationships with leaders up and down the Valley who haven’t seen the kind of results I’ve delivered.”
The Debate is sponsored by the Central Valley Journalism Collaborative, the Maddy Institute, and UC Merced's Center for Analytic Political Engagement. Seats for the event are no longer available, however, it will be broadcast live on CapRadio 91.3 FM (Stanislaus County) and KVPR 89.3 FM (Merced and Fresno counties).
