With the 2024 election count now in the home stretch, Democrat Adam Gray has taken the lead over incumbent Rep. John Duarte (R-Modesto) for the first time in their bid for the 13th Congressional District seat.

Gray, a five-term Assemblymember between 2012 and 2022, leads the race by a mere 190 votes. It’s the closest and last uncalled House race in the nation, according to the Associated Press.

In 2022, the Gray-Duarte matchup was the second-closest contest in the country, with Duarte winning the seat by just 564 votes.

“While this race is still too close to call, I’m am hopeful for our chances following tonight’s ballot-count update,” Gray said via text on Wednesday. “There are still quite a few ballots to count … every vote matters.”

As of Friday morning, Gray had a total of 104,991 votes to Duarte’s 104,801, according to the California Secretary of State’s website. That’s a total of 209,792 votes, 76,173 more than were cast two years ago in the mid-term election. Midterms typically suffer from lower turnout.

The 13th Congressional District touches parts (or all) of five counties: Stanislaus, Merced (all), San Joaquin, Madera, and Fresno, with Merced and Stanislaus counties accounting for two-thirds of the district’s vote total.

“We’re got 186 provisional ballots left to count,” Donna Linder, Stanislaus County’s registrar of voters, said on Wednesday. “We’ll finish up on Monday, though we can’t make anything official until Dec. 3.”

At this point, the math seems to favor Gray.

About 35 percent of Stanislaus County voters reside within the 13th. That means, based purely on math, about 65 of those 186 provisional ballots would originate from the 13th district. And, based on current trends, about 35 of those votes would go to Gray, which would increase his lead by five.

A similar scenario exists in Merced County, where registrar of voters Melvin Levey said he has about 1,200 curable ballots left to tabulate.

Since all of Merced County sits within the 13th, all 1,200 should count toward the Gray-Duarte race (assuming nobody chose to skip that race on their ballot). Again, if current trends hold, Gray would receive about 625 votes to Duarte’s 575, increasing his lead by another 50 votes.

In Fresno County, according to registrar of voters James Kus, there remains about 5,000 conditional-voter-registration and provisional ballots to be counted, plus 4,500 that need to be cured, and another 400 that require duplicates. Since only 7 percent of Fresno County voters reside in the 13th district, about 700 of those 9,900 would affect that race. And based on current trends, Duarte would outgain Gray 392-308, shaving more than 80 votes off the challenger’s lead.

Madera County, another Republican stronghold, had 242 curable ballots that needed attention, according to senior deputy clerk-recorder, Daniel Garcia. Duarte figures to take 57 percent of those, shaving another 100 votes off Gray’s lead.

San Joaquin County registrar of voters Olivia Hale, whose office worked on Friday, figured she had less than 200 ballots from the 13th district left to handle. Gray leads in that county with 53.3 percent of the vote, indicating that the majority of remaining ballots would favor him, though it wouldn’t be a significant total.

All that would leave Duarte — unofficially — short of his challenger.

“We are currently out curing during ballots with a large contingent,” Duarte said via text on Tuesday. “Once all the votes are counted and the election is certified, if I do not prevail, I will concede.”

Ballots need to be “cured” when there’s a minor discrepancy —such as a misspelled name, a missing signature, or an illegible signature — with the ballot. Most of the time, however, the voter doesn’t even realize there’s an issue with their ballot, and is unaware it needs curing. Candidates will often send out volunteers to alert voters of the issue, and then will provide the voter with the proper paperwork to rectify the problem, helping to ensure that vote gets counted.

Both campaigns have been working feverishly to cure ballots in recent days.

The GOP controls 220 of the 435 seats in the House — 218 is needed for a majority — and the Democrats control 214. A Democrat win in the 13th district would leave the Republicans with a slim five-seat majority.